Monday, January 20, 2014

Macro economy affecting crude prices at week’s head

Chinese economy expanded by 7.7% in 2013, according to the statistics bureau in Beijing. In the U.S., the pace of home construction declined less than projected in December, capping the strongest year for the sector since 2007, Commerce Department data showed on Jan. 17. Industrial production increased for a fifth month. Large speculators reduced bullish bets on WTI by 17,455 futures and options combined to 229,722 in the week ended January 14, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s the lowest level since November 26.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell from the highest closing price in the last fourteen days after government data showed that industrial output slowed last month in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer. Futures lost as much as 0.8%. Factory production rose by 9.7%, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. WTI capped its first weekly gain since December on January 17 amid signs the U.S., the largest oil user, will sustain its economic growth. March future was down 66 cents at $93.93, as it is shown in the chart above. The volume of all contracts traded was about 20% below the 100-day average.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

WTI Oil Trades near Two-Week High as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Drop

West Texas Intermediate traded near the highest price in two weeks after government data showed crude inventories fell to the lowest level since March 2012 in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Futures were little changed in New York after advancing 1.7%, the most in six weeks. Crude stockpiles slid by 7.66 million barrels to 350.2 million in the seven days ended January 10, according to the Energy Information Administration. The contract of February raised $1.58 to $94.17 on Friday, the highest close since January 2. The volume of all futures traded was 42% below the 100-day average.
Crude inventories shrank as imports decreased 13% last week, the most since September 2012, according to the EIA report. Gasoline stockpiles increased 6.18 million barrels, compared with a projected gain of 2.5 million. In Libya, the biggest crude reserves holder in Africa. Operations have returned to normal at the Sharara field as protesters are satisfied with the government’s response to their demands. The country’s production has risen to about 600,000 barrels a day this week, from 210,000 barrels a day in December, after work resumed at Sharara on January 4, according to state-run National Oil Corp.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Much better than forecasts, whole sales trade released higher than the last time.

Yellow metal lost around 4.5% during the day, amid the release of whole sales data, when the U.S. Census Bureau announced today that November 2013 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $440.1 billion, up 1.0% from the revised October level and were up 5.5% from the November 2012 level. The October preliminary estimate was revised upward $0.6 billion or 0.1%.
November sales of durable goods were down 0.4% from last month, but were up 4.0% from a year ago. While total inventories, were $516.4 billion at the end of November, up 0.5% from the revised October level and were up 3.3% from the November 2012 level. The October preliminary estimate was revised downward $0.3 billion or 0.1% t. November inventories of durable goods were up 0.5% last month and were up 4.2% from a year ago.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Yen, Better balance of trade and stronger for short time

The samurai currency Rose against green back after the release of Japanese trade balance. Gaining around 2.8%, Yen broke the level of 103.00 reaching three weeks strongest rate at 102.85 on Monday. The deficit was 0.3 Trillion larger than the foretasted when released this morning at 0.5 Trillion. The balance of trade for November 2013 was 82% lower than the same month in 2012, but it still do not meet the forecasts at 0.2 Trillion. Japanese exports reached 3.4 Trillions 20% higher than what it been in November 2012.

Anyway, that strength did not remain for long time. Today, Yen started to weakens as BOJ declared that Japanese investors who have U.S. bonds decided to hold it for longer period that expected which may impede the cash pumping strategy to raise the inflation rate within the economy. 

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

On the day of FOMC meeting

Gold fell for a second day in London on speculation that U.S. data will strengthen the dollar and boost the case for the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus. The ADP Research Institute may say today those private payrolls in the U.S. raised by 200K workers last month. The Federal Open Market Committee decided at the December 17-18 meeting to cut monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion starting this month. Bullion slid 28% last year, the most since 1981, as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. Prices rose as much as 5.6% since setting a six-month low on December 31, partly as physical demand increased in China.

Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products are at the lowest since October 2009. The Fed will probably reduce its bond purchases in $10 billion increments over the next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014. Gold for fell 0.6% to $1,224.81 an. Bullion for February delivery lost 0.5% to $1,223.90, where futures trading volume was 17% below the average for the past 100 days for this time of day.

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Physical demand gave the golden push to the yellow metal

Gold is the most bullish in a year on speculation that investors are reducing near-record bearish bets after the biggest plunge in prices since 1981. Short positions held by hedge funds and other large speculators jumped almost fourfold from October to December 24 as the bear market deepened the latest U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Prices rebounded as much as 5.4% since slumping to a six-month low on December 31. Gold retreated for the first time in 13 years in 2013 as an improving economy spurred speculation the Federal Reserve would curb stimulus. More than $73.4 billion was erased from the value of gold-backed funds as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. Bullion rallied as much as 21% in two months through August as traders cut short positions and prices that slipped to a 34-month low in June boosted demand for jewelry, coins and bars.

Bullion rose to near a three-week high of $1,246.46 an ounce today, rebounding from last year’s 28% slide. Bullion slipped the past four months and reached $1,182.27 on December 31, within 0.1% of the June low, and it rebounded since then as some investors closed out bearish wagers, and as physical buyers viewed prices near $1,200 as attractive. The U.S. Mint sold 56K ounces of American eagle gold coins in December, the most since June and contributing to a 14% gain in annual sales, data shown on its website. Australia’s Perth Mint sold 41% more gold in 2013 and Turkey’s imports climbed 64% last month to the highest since July, data on the Istanbul Gold Exchange’s website show.

Euro gain amid Germany unexpected Data

In November 2013, a total of 42.2 million persons resident in Germany were employed according to provisional calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). That was an increase of 245K people or 0.6% compared with November 2012. The number of unemployed was 2.13 million in November 2013, which was a decline of 94K, people on a year earlier. Unemployed numbers declined during November only by 15K, the largest decline since January 2013. As an additional bright Germany data, Enterprises in industry (excluding construction) invested more than 7 billion Euros in tangible fixed assets for environmental protection in 2011. Compared with 2010 they increased their environmental investments by 18%. The Federal Statistical Office also reports that environmental investments accounted for almost 10% of the total 73.5 billion Euros invested by the enterprises.

Due to that unexpected support, Euro rebounded from one month low recorded today at the level of 1.3571, blue union currency scored today 1.3652 as day’s high. To be traded on average rate of 1.3634 during the day.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Gold Rose from the worst drop in 32 years

Gold rose to a two-week high, rebounding from the worst year in three decades, as a drop to a six-month low was seen spurring physical purchases and prompting some investors to reverse bearish bets. Bullion slid 28% last year, the most since 1981, and reached $1,181.40 per ounce on December 31, the lowest since a 34-month low set in June. Gold ended a 12-year bull run and assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded products shrank for the first time since the first fund was introduced in 2003, as investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. U.S. data on December 31 showed consumer sentiment and home prices climbed, underscoring the confidence expressed by the Federal Reserve when it said it will slow bond purchases this month amid an improving economy.
In the week ending December 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339K, a decrease of 2K from the previous week's revised figure of 341K. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2% for the week ending December 21, unchanged from the prior week's un-revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 21 was 2,833K, a decrease of 98K from the preceding week's revised level of 2,931K.